Strategic Expansion Planning

Context

Košík and Metro evaluated a strategic partnership to expand e-grocery across Europe. Shareholders needed defensible numbers before signing.

Problem

"Should we do this, where first, and at what pace?" required market sizing grounded in operations - warehouses, delivery times, density - not slide-deck guesses alone.

My role

Heavy contributor on the Košík side: analysis, modelling, market research, and negotiation support materials.

Constraints

• Shareholder scrutiny: Models had to survive questions from both sides.
• Geography-first: Profitability timing depends on where hubs and routes actually work.
• Downstream launch: Analysis had to connect to real expansion (Bulgaria first).

What I did

• Built Python market-size simulation (travelling-salesman-style routing) across European cities with warehouse location, delivery times, and density inputs.
• Sized opportunity, speed of rollout, and location-level profitability and investment needs.
• Supported negotiation materials alongside broader market research.

Key decisions

• Ops-shaped model: Geography and logistics constraints before narrative slides.
• Explicit first market: Analysis informed Bulgaria as the first bet.

Result

Joint venture agreed; partnership still running in three European countries with more planned. Bulgaria launch followed - see International expansion. Map on this page is illustrative; original model files are gone.

What this shows

Turning ambiguous expansion strategy into quantitative operational choices - the kind of work that makes later product and launch decisions possible.